{"data":{"aliases":["Cascade"],"advisoryIndicators":[{"detail":"The average gap between presidential votes and same-party down-ballot votes is large enough to review. Split-ticket voting can explain some gap; this flag identifies areas needing supporting records.","electionYear":2024,"id":"3c35e6f0-34d0-4f97-9fe5-3a1c2ac7306d","jurisdictionCode":"MT-CASCADE","jurisdictionName":"Cascade","jurisdictionTag":"county:30013","label":"Average down-ballot difference","level":"county","metrics":{"county":"Cascade","rowCount":26,"scopeType":"county","demOutliers":0,"repOutliers":0,"auditContext":null,"outlierTrigger":3,"trumpCorrelation":0.37035406966982,"demAverageDropoff":-8.876746153846153,"harrisCorrelation":0.5878968968668481,"repAverageDropoff":7.24246153846154,"denominatorContext":null,"comparisonCoverageMode":"presidentVsSenate","directionalScreenReason":"","directionalScreenConfidence":"standard","comparableDownBallotRowCount":26,"incomparableDownBallotRowCount":0},"severity":6.1181,"state":"MT","summary":"Average President-vs-down-ballot difference crossed threshold: DEM -8.88%, REP 7.24%.","type":"average_down_ballot_difference"},{"detail":"Bigger local reporting-unit vote totals move with candidate vote share strongly enough to pass the native review threshold. This is an advisory review flag, not proof of tampering.","electionYear":2024,"id":"e7dfa3f4-d434-4531-9162-fd2f3b3a2a77","jurisdictionCode":"MT-CASCADE","jurisdictionName":"Cascade","jurisdictionTag":"county:30013","label":"Vote-share pattern","level":"county","metrics":{"county":"Cascade","rowCount":26,"scopeType":"county","demOutliers":0,"repOutliers":0,"auditContext":null,"outlierTrigger":3,"trumpCorrelation":0.37035406966982,"demAverageDropoff":-8.876746153846153,"harrisCorrelation":0.5878968968668481,"repAverageDropoff":7.24246153846154,"denominatorContext":null,"comparisonCoverageMode":"presidentVsSenate","directionalScreenReason":"","directionalScreenConfidence":"standard","comparableDownBallotRowCount":26,"incomparableDownBallotRowCount":0},"severity":6.1181,"state":"MT","summary":"Vote-share correlation crossed threshold: Trump r=0.370, Harris r=0.588.","type":"vote_share_pattern"}],"caveats":[],"confidence":{"level":"exact","label":"Exact reported geography","shortLabel":"Exact","description":"The published row maps directly to the canonical county or county-equivalent geography.","caveat":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows. Candidate-level precinct rows for President and U.S. Senate in one official workbook. Presidential write-ins are not included in this workbook, so the native metrics expose a 27-vote statewide certified gap against the canvass total."},"displayName":"Cascade County","equipment":[{"absenteeSystem":"Batch-Fed Optical Scanners","accessibleSystem":"Ballot Marking Devices for all voters","configurationSignals":["polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system","absentee system differs from standard polling-place system"],"electionYear":2024,"equipmentType":"Optical Scan","id":"656cfce6-ba29-4d57-81ef-12dfe724b009","jurisdictionCode":"MT-013","jurisdictionName":"Cascade County","jurisdictionTag":"county:30013","level":"county","metrics":{"caveat":"Verified Voting Verifier data is jurisdiction-level election-administration context. Most rows are counties, but some states report state-level rows and some county rows can summarize mixed tabulation, accessible-device, absentee, poll-book, or other configurations. Treat it as source-linked context, not proof every precinct in a county used one identical setup, and not a turnout or vote-result source.","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/30","uniformityNote":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup.","sourceGranularity":"county","configurationSignals":["polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system","absentee system differs from standard polling-place system"],"uniformityWarningRequired":true},"paperRecord":"hand_marked_paper","pollingPlaces":6,"pollBookSystem":"Paper Poll Book","precincts":26,"registeredVoters":44333,"sourceGranularity":"county","sourceId":"mt-2024-verified-voting-verifier-mt-2024-equipment","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/30","standardSystem":"Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","state":"MT","systemName":"ES&S ExpressVote +","tabulation":"Optical Scan","uniformityNote":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup.","uniformityWarningRequired":true,"usage":"county_context","vendor":"ES&S","confidence":{"level":"proxy","label":"Contextual proxy","shortLabel":"Proxy","description":"The value is contextual or supplemental and should not be treated as a silent replacement for an official certified total.","caveat":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup."}}],"fips":"30013","geographyLevel":"county","geometrySource":"mt-counties.geojson","history":[{"available":true,"demSharePct":35.41,"demVotes":12175,"leader":"Republican","marginPct":21.69,"marginVotes":7457,"otherVotes":2577,"repSharePct":57.1,"repVotes":19632,"totalVotes":34384,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Hillary Clinton","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows."],"confidence":{"level":"exact","label":"Exact reported geography","shortLabel":"Exact","description":"The published row maps directly to the canonical county or county-equivalent geography.","caveat":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows."},"source":{"authority":"Montana Secretary of State","category":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV","confidence":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows.","id":"mt-2024-mt-historical-presidential-baseline","sourceUrl":"https://sosmt.gov/Portals/142/Elections/archives/2010s/2016/2016-General-Results-by-Precinct.xlsx","status":"loaded","title":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2016},{"available":true,"demSharePct":38.75,"demVotes":15456,"leader":"Republican","marginPct":19.7,"marginVotes":7859,"otherVotes":1114,"repSharePct":58.46,"repVotes":23315,"totalVotes":39885,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Joe Biden","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows."],"confidence":{"level":"exact","label":"Exact reported geography","shortLabel":"Exact","description":"The published row maps directly to the canonical county or county-equivalent geography.","caveat":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows."},"source":{"authority":"Montana Secretary of State","category":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV","confidence":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows.","id":"mt-2024-mt-historical-presidential-baseline","sourceUrl":"https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020_General_Precinct-by-Precinct.xlsx","status":"loaded","title":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2020},{"available":true,"demSharePct":37.31,"demVotes":14021,"leader":"Republican","marginPct":22.35,"marginVotes":8398,"otherVotes":1143,"repSharePct":59.65,"repVotes":22419,"totalVotes":37583,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Kamala Harris","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["Candidate-level precinct rows for President and U.S. Senate in one official workbook. Presidential write-ins are not included in this workbook, so the native metrics expose a 27-vote statewide certified gap against the canvass total."],"confidence":{"level":"exact","label":"Exact reported geography","shortLabel":"Exact","description":"The published row maps directly to the canonical county or county-equivalent geography.","caveat":"Candidate-level precinct rows for President and U.S. Senate in one official workbook. Presidential write-ins are not included in this workbook, so the native metrics expose a 27-vote statewide certified gap against the canvass total."},"source":{"authority":"Montana Secretary of State","category":"Official 2024 general election precinct-by-precinct results workbook","confidence":"Candidate-level precinct rows for President and U.S. Senate in one official workbook. Presidential write-ins are not included in this workbook, so the native metrics expose a 27-vote statewide certified gap against the canvass total.","id":"mt-2024-mt-2024-general-precinct-by-precinct","sourceUrl":"https://sosmt.gov/docs/32/results/66992/2024_general_precinct_by_precinct","status":"loaded","title":"Official 2024 general election precinct-by-precinct results workbook"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2024}],"jurisdictionTag":"county:30013","sources":[{"authority":"Montana Secretary of State","category":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV","confidence":"County-level historical baseline rows resolve to Census county FIPS tags. Dem/Rep candidate totals are official workbook totals; other_votes exclude separate write-in canvass votes because the official export does not allocate them into county rows.","id":"mt-2024-mt-historical-presidential-baseline","sourceUrl":"https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020_General_Precinct-by-Precinct.xlsx","status":"loaded","title":"Normalized official 2016 and 2020 county presidential baseline CSV"},{"authority":"Montana Secretary of State","category":"Official 2024 general election precinct-by-precinct results workbook","confidence":"Candidate-level precinct rows for President and U.S. Senate in one official workbook. Presidential write-ins are not included in this workbook, so the native metrics expose a 27-vote statewide certified gap against the canvass total.","id":"mt-2024-mt-2024-general-precinct-by-precinct","sourceUrl":"https://sosmt.gov/docs/32/results/66992/2024_general_precinct_by_precinct","status":"loaded","title":"Official 2024 general election precinct-by-precinct results workbook"},{"authority":"U.S. Election Assistance Commission","category":"EAC fallback turnout rows","confidence":"National EAC fallback turnout rows. Prefer state election office denominator artifacts when available; keep fallback caveats visible in the app.","id":"mt-2024-mt-2024-eac-turnout","sourceUrl":"https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports","status":"loaded","title":"EAC fallback turnout rows"},{"authority":"Verified Voting","category":"equipment_context","confidence":"Verified Voting Verifier data is jurisdiction-level election-administration context. Most rows are counties, but some states report state-level rows and some county rows can summarize mixed tabulation, accessible-device, absentee, poll-book, or other configurations. Treat it as source-linked context, not proof every precinct in a county used one identical setup, and not a turnout or vote-result source.","id":"mt-2024-verified-voting-verifier-mt-2024-equipment","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/30","status":"loaded","title":"Verified Voting Verifier MT 2024 equipment context"}],"state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","turnout":{"available":true,"ballotsCast":38198,"confidence":{"level":"proxy","label":"Contextual proxy","shortLabel":"Proxy","description":"The value is contextual or supplemental and should not be treated as a silent replacement for an official certified total.","caveat":"The source marks this turnout denominator as warning-required; read the denominator note before comparing rates."},"denominatorNotes":["EAC-reported registered-voter denominator"],"level":"jurisdiction","registeredVoters":51988,"rowCount":1,"source":{"authority":"U.S. Election Assistance Commission","category":"EAC fallback turnout rows","confidence":"National EAC fallback turnout rows. Prefer state election office denominator artifacts when available; keep fallback caveats visible in the app.","id":"mt-2024-mt-2024-eac-turnout","sourceUrl":"https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports","status":"loaded","title":"EAC fallback turnout rows"},"turnoutPct":73.47,"warningRequired":true,"year":2024},"voteMethods":[]},"meta":{"generatedAt":"2026-07-26T18:57:39.859Z","source":"database","releaseId":null,"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","caveat":"Advisory indicators are source-review prompts, not findings of fraud or misconduct.","contract":"county:<five-digit Census GEOID>","electionYears":[2016,2020,2024],"fips":"30013"}}