{"data":{"aliases":["Cumberland"],"advisoryIndicators":[{"detail":"The average gap between presidential votes and the same-party comparison contest is large enough to review. Split-ticket voting and candidate or contest differences can explain the gap; this is an advisory flag, not proof of misconduct.","electionYear":2024,"id":"0dce9377-93c8-472f-add5-c1109eebae0e","jurisdictionCode":"NC-CUMBERLAND","jurisdictionName":"Cumberland","jurisdictionTag":"county:37051","label":"Average down-ballot difference","level":"county","metrics":{"rowCount":77,"scopeType":"county","demOutliers":0,"repOutliers":5,"auditContext":null,"demCandidate":"Kamala Harris","electionYear":2024,"repCandidate":"Donald Trump","demCorrelation":0.5483936818522022,"outlierTrigger":4,"repCorrelation":0.5907382181650025,"comparisonGrain":"local","comparisonContest":"","demAverageDropoff":-3.6108025974025995,"repAverageDropoff":9.236903896103893,"denominatorContext":null,"comparisonCoverageMode":"presidentVsGovernor","directionalScreenReason":"Governor is a statewide executive race with candidate-specific ticket splitting; corroborate with additional contests or historical baselines before inferring candidate benefit","directionalScreenConfidence":"low","comparableDownBallotRowCount":77,"incomparableDownBallotRowCount":0},"severity":7.5563,"state":"NC","summary":"Average President-vs-comparison difference crossed threshold: DEM -3.61%, REP 9.24%.","type":"average_down_ballot_difference"},{"detail":"Enough local result rows have unusually large presidential-versus-comparison-contest differences to pass the outlier-count threshold. This is an advisory review flag, not proof of misconduct.","electionYear":2024,"id":"811437a9-9718-4aa4-8dbb-84be808926d6","jurisdictionCode":"NC-CUMBERLAND","jurisdictionName":"Cumberland","jurisdictionTag":"county:37051","label":"Down-ballot outliers","level":"county","metrics":{"rowCount":77,"scopeType":"county","demOutliers":0,"repOutliers":5,"auditContext":null,"demCandidate":"Kamala Harris","electionYear":2024,"repCandidate":"Donald Trump","demCorrelation":0.5483936818522022,"outlierTrigger":4,"repCorrelation":0.5907382181650025,"comparisonGrain":"local","comparisonContest":"","demAverageDropoff":-3.6108025974025995,"repAverageDropoff":9.236903896103893,"denominatorContext":null,"comparisonCoverageMode":"presidentVsGovernor","directionalScreenReason":"Governor is a statewide executive race with candidate-specific ticket splitting; corroborate with additional contests or historical baselines before inferring candidate benefit","directionalScreenConfidence":"low","comparableDownBallotRowCount":77,"incomparableDownBallotRowCount":0},"severity":7.5563,"state":"NC","summary":"Drop-off outlier count crossed threshold: DEM 0, REP 5, trigger 4.","type":"down_ballot_outliers"},{"detail":"Bigger local reporting-unit vote totals move with candidate vote share strongly enough to pass the review threshold. Reporting-unit size, geography, demographics, and vote-method mix can explain the pattern; this is an advisory flag, not proof of misconduct.","electionYear":2024,"id":"f3e43e2b-5221-48e6-a5fa-ff540f135033","jurisdictionCode":"NC-CUMBERLAND","jurisdictionName":"Cumberland","jurisdictionTag":"county:37051","label":"Vote-share pattern","level":"county","metrics":{"rowCount":77,"scopeType":"county","demOutliers":0,"repOutliers":5,"auditContext":null,"demCandidate":"Kamala Harris","electionYear":2024,"repCandidate":"Donald Trump","demCorrelation":0.5483936818522022,"outlierTrigger":4,"repCorrelation":0.5907382181650025,"comparisonGrain":"local","comparisonContest":"","demAverageDropoff":-3.6108025974025995,"repAverageDropoff":9.236903896103893,"denominatorContext":null,"comparisonCoverageMode":"presidentVsGovernor","directionalScreenReason":"Governor is a statewide executive race with candidate-specific ticket splitting; corroborate with additional contests or historical baselines before inferring candidate benefit","directionalScreenConfidence":"low","comparableDownBallotRowCount":77,"incomparableDownBallotRowCount":0},"severity":7.5563,"state":"NC","summary":"Vote-share correlation crossed threshold: Kamala Harris r=0.548, Donald Trump r=0.591.","type":"vote_share_pattern"}],"caveats":[],"confidence":{"level":"derived","label":"Derived from official rows","shortLabel":"Derived","description":"The value is reproducibly aggregated, normalized, or calculated from official published rows.","caveat":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP. Official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct result export with contest, candidate party, vote-method columns, total votes, and Real Precinct flag."},"displayName":"Cumberland County","equipment":[{"absenteeSystem":"Batch-Fed Optical Scanners","accessibleSystem":"Ballot Marking Devices for all voters","configurationSignals":["polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system","absentee system differs from standard polling-place system"],"electionYear":2024,"equipmentType":"Optical Scan","id":"b06b87cd-c4c9-4601-8274-054dd626f26d","jurisdictionCode":"NC-051","jurisdictionName":"Cumberland County","jurisdictionTag":"county:37051","level":"county","metrics":{"caveat":"Verified Voting Verifier data is jurisdiction-level election-administration context. Most rows are counties, but some states report state-level rows and some county rows can summarize mixed tabulation, accessible-device, absentee, poll-book, or other configurations. Treat it as source-linked context, not proof every precinct in a county used one identical setup, and not a turnout or vote-result source.","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/37","uniformityNote":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup.","sourceGranularity":"county","configurationSignals":["polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system","absentee system differs from standard polling-place system"],"uniformityWarningRequired":true},"paperRecord":"hand_marked_paper","pollingPlaces":78,"pollBookSystem":"In-House Electronic Poll Book","precincts":77,"registeredVoters":182974,"sourceGranularity":"county","sourceId":"nc-2024-verified-voting-verifier-nc-2024-equipment","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/37","standardSystem":"Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility","state":"NC","systemName":"ES&S ExpressVote +","tabulation":"Optical Scan","uniformityNote":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup.","uniformityWarningRequired":true,"usage":"county_context","vendor":"ES&S","confidence":{"level":"proxy","label":"Contextual proxy","shortLabel":"Proxy","description":"The value is contextual or supplemental and should not be treated as a silent replacement for an official certified total.","caveat":"Verifier row is a county-level summary. polling-place system reports multiple values: Hand marked paper ballots, BMDs for accessibility; accessible voting system differs from standard polling-place system; absentee system differs from standard polling-place system. Do not infer every precinct or ballot mode used one identical setup."}}],"fips":"37051","geographyLevel":"county","geometrySource":"nc-counties.geojson","history":[{"available":true,"demSharePct":56.16,"demVotes":71605,"leader":"Democratic","marginPct":15.95,"marginVotes":20340,"otherVotes":4636,"repSharePct":40.21,"repVotes":51265,"totalVotes":127506,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Hillary Clinton","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP."],"confidence":{"level":"derived","label":"Derived from official rows","shortLabel":"Derived","description":"The value is reproducibly aggregated, normalized, or calculated from official published rows.","caveat":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP."},"source":{"authority":"North Carolina State Board of Elections","category":"Historical county presidential baseline rows","confidence":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP.","id":"nc-2020-nc-historical-presidential-results-zips","sourceUrl":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2016_11_08/results_pct_20161108.zip","status":"loaded","title":"Historical county presidential baseline rows"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2016},{"available":true,"demSharePct":57.4,"demVotes":84469,"leader":"Democratic","marginPct":16.61,"marginVotes":24437,"otherVotes":2649,"repSharePct":40.8,"repVotes":60032,"totalVotes":147150,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Joe Biden","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP."],"confidence":{"level":"derived","label":"Derived from official rows","shortLabel":"Derived","description":"The value is reproducibly aggregated, normalized, or calculated from official published rows.","caveat":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP."},"source":{"authority":"North Carolina State Board of Elections","category":"Historical county presidential baseline rows","confidence":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP.","id":"nc-2020-nc-historical-presidential-results-zips","sourceUrl":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2020_11_03/results_pct_20201103.zip","status":"loaded","title":"Historical county presidential baseline rows"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2020},{"available":true,"demSharePct":55.96,"demVotes":78631,"leader":"Democratic","marginPct":13.37,"marginVotes":18791,"otherVotes":2042,"repSharePct":42.59,"repVotes":59840,"totalVotes":140513,"candidateLabels":{"dem":"Kamala Harris","rep":"Donald Trump"},"caveats":["Official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct result export with contest, candidate party, vote-method columns, total votes, and Real Precinct flag."],"confidence":{"level":"exact","label":"Exact reported geography","shortLabel":"Exact","description":"The published row maps directly to the canonical county or county-equivalent geography.","caveat":"Official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct result export with contest, candidate party, vote-method columns, total votes, and Real Precinct flag."},"source":{"authority":"North Carolina State Board of Elections","category":"Official precinct presidential and Governor review rows","confidence":"Official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct result export with contest, candidate party, vote-method columns, total votes, and Real Precinct flag.","id":"nc-2024-nc-2024-results-precinct-zip","sourceUrl":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2024_11_05/results_pct_20241105.zip","status":"loaded","title":"Official precinct presidential and Governor review rows"},"sourceLevel":"county","year":2024}],"jurisdictionTag":"county:37051","sources":[{"authority":"North Carolina State Board of Elections","category":"Historical county presidential baseline rows","confidence":"Official NCSBE precinct result exports aggregated to county historical presidential baseline rows. Use as historical context only; 2024 certified results continue to use the 2024 official result ZIP.","id":"nc-2020-nc-historical-presidential-results-zips","sourceUrl":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2020_11_03/results_pct_20201103.zip","status":"loaded","title":"Historical county presidential baseline rows"},{"authority":"North Carolina State Board of Elections","category":"Official precinct presidential and Governor review rows","confidence":"Official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct result export with contest, candidate party, vote-method columns, total votes, and Real Precinct flag.","id":"nc-2024-nc-2024-results-precinct-zip","sourceUrl":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2024_11_05/results_pct_20241105.zip","status":"loaded","title":"Official precinct presidential and Governor review rows"},{"authority":"U.S. Election Assistance Commission","category":"EAC fallback county turnout rows","confidence":"National EAC fallback turnout rows. Prefer North Carolina State Board of Elections turnout-denominator artifacts if equal or finer official detail is later sourced.","id":"nc-2024-nc-2024-eac-turnout","sourceUrl":"https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports","status":"candidate","title":"EAC fallback county turnout rows"},{"authority":"Verified Voting","category":"equipment_context","confidence":"Verified Voting Verifier data is jurisdiction-level election-administration context. Most rows are counties, but some states report state-level rows and some county rows can summarize mixed tabulation, accessible-device, absentee, poll-book, or other configurations. Treat it as source-linked context, not proof every precinct in a county used one identical setup, and not a turnout or vote-result source.","id":"nc-2024-verified-voting-verifier-nc-2024-equipment","sourceUrl":"https://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#mode/navigate/map/voteEquip/mapType/ppEquip/year/2024/state/37","status":"loaded","title":"Verified Voting Verifier NC 2024 equipment context"}],"state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","turnout":{"available":true,"ballotsCast":143060,"confidence":{"level":"proxy","label":"Contextual proxy","shortLabel":"Proxy","description":"The value is contextual or supplemental and should not be treated as a silent replacement for an official certified total.","caveat":"The source marks this turnout denominator as warning-required; read the denominator note before comparing rates."},"denominatorNotes":["EAC-reported registered-voter denominator"],"level":"jurisdiction","registeredVoters":230310,"rowCount":1,"source":{"authority":"U.S. Election Assistance Commission","category":"EAC fallback county turnout rows","confidence":"National EAC fallback turnout rows. Prefer North Carolina State Board of Elections turnout-denominator artifacts if equal or finer official detail is later sourced.","id":"nc-2024-nc-2024-eac-turnout","sourceUrl":"https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports","status":"candidate","title":"EAC fallback county turnout rows"},"turnoutPct":62.12,"warningRequired":true,"year":2024},"voteMethods":[]},"meta":{"generatedAt":"2026-07-26T18:57:23.635Z","source":"database","releaseId":null,"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","caveat":"Advisory indicators are source-review prompts, not findings of fraud or misconduct.","contract":"county:<five-digit Census GEOID>","electionYears":[2016,2020,2024],"fips":"37051"}}